Closing number
Source: DraftKings.
TOL 39, BALL 24. BALL covered by 5.5, over by 10.5.
Our crowd
Who's on what before kickoff, from the cappers we track and bets logged on our tracker.
Public cappers
None of the cappers we track have picked this one yet.
Want sportsbook bets % and money %? DraftKings posts theirs free: DK betting splits. We quote a few big games by hand when we can. Tracker counts are anonymous: no names, and private bets stay private.
Common opponents
No common opponents yet this season.
Last season (2025): 5 common opponents
| Opponent |  Toledo |  Ball St |
|---|---|---|
 Akron | W 45-3 home +42 · -22.5 Covered | W 42-28 home +14 · -1.5 Covered |
 Kent St | W 45-10 home +35 · -25.5 Covered | W 17-13 home +4 · -3.5 Covered |
 Miami (OH) | W 24-3 away +21 · -6.5 Covered | L 24-45 away -21 · +16.5 Didn't cover |
 Northern Illinois | W 42-3 home +39 · -15.5 Covered | L 7-21 away -14 · +6.5 Didn't cover |
 Western Michigan | L 13-14 away -1 · -11.5 Didn't cover | L 0-42 away -42 · +9.5 Didn't cover |
Against 5 common opponents: Toledo won by 27.2 on average, 4-1 against the spread. Ball St lost by 11.8 on average, 2-3 against the spread.
Betting form, 2026 to date
Toledo PWLWLL
| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-3-1 40%Small sample | 5-1 83% overSmall sample |
| Road | 0-1-1 0%Small sample | 2-0 100% overSmall sample |
| As favorite | 2-3 40%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 2-3 40%Small sample |
6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
Ball State LWLLWW
| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-3 50%Small sample | 5-1 83% overSmall sample |
| Home | 2-0 100%Small sample | 2-0 100% overSmall sample |
| As underdog | 2-3 40%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 3-2 60%Small sample |
6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games); over-under vs the closing total
Head to head since 2019
| Date | Score | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | TOL 39, BALL 24 | TOL -20.5 | BALL covered | 52.5 | Over |
| Nov 22, 2025 | BALL 9, TOL 38 | TOL -28.5 | TOL covered | 45.5 | Over |
| Oct 14, 2023 | TOL 13, BALL 6 | TOL -17.5 | BALL covered | 48.5 | Under |
| Nov 8, 2022 | BALL 21, TOL 28 | TOL -14 | BALL covered | 53 | Under |
| Sep 25, 2021 | TOL 22, BALL 12 | TOL -4.5 | TOL covered | 56.5 | Under |
| Nov 28, 2020 | BALL 27, TOL 24 | TOL -9.5 | BALL covered | 66.5 | Under |
| Oct 19, 2019 | TOL 14, BALL 52 | BALL -3 | BALL covered | 58 | Over |
Toledo 2-5 ATS in these meetings. 7 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over.
CFB (FBS), 2019-2025 + 2026 so far · regular season + postseason · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games); totals vs the closing total
Side by side
 TOL | BALL  | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 1-5 |
| 2-3-1 | Against the spread | 3-3 |
| 5-1 | Over-under | 5-1 |
| -0.6 | Avg cover margin | -2.5 |
| 36.7 | Points per game | 18.3 |
| 25.2 | Points allowed | 39.0 |
| 6.61 | Yards per play | 4.71 |
| 454.8 | Yards per game | 308.0 |
| 5.10 | Rush yards per carry | 3.90 |
| 63.1 | Completion % | 63.8 |
| 43.4 | Third down % | 28.9 |
| +5 | Turnover margin | +1 |
| 3 | Sacks allowed | 14 |
| 69.0 | Penalty yards per game | 72.5 |
Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.