OfftheNumber
Graded against the closing line

Trends

Spots that hold up across thousands of games come first. Every number shows how many games it comes from and gets a plain call: likely real, or could be luck.

Spots with real samples

Graded against the closing line, pooled across every season we have (CFB 2019 to 2026, 6,378 games; NFL 2019 to 2026, 2,035 games). 3 of 39 spots hold up to the sample-size test, and 4 more lean one way without being proven. The rest could be luck, which is what an efficient market looks like, so they sit in each league's full list below.

SpotLeagueRecordHit rateGamesReal or luck?
Unders in night games (8 PM ET or later)NFL237-174-357.7% under411Likely real
Unders, totals 65 and upCFB337-265-556.0% under602Likely real
Overs, totals 45 to 54.5CFB1469-1330-1152.5% over2,799Likely real
Unders, totals 55 to 64.5CFB1144-1037-2052.5% under2,181Leaning
Divisional underdogsNFL379-320-754.2% cover699Leaning
Unders, totals under 40NFL138-105-156.8% under243Leaning
Road underdogsNFL639-572-1652.8% cover1,211Leaning

Sorted by how strong each one is for its sample size. Past results, not promises: once a spot is widely known, books shade it.

College Football

Situational spots, 2019 to 2026

SpotRecordHit rateGamesReal or luck?
Unders, totals 65 and up337-265-556.0% under602Likely real
Overs, totals 45 to 54.51469-1330-1152.5% over2,799Likely real
Unders, totals 55 to 64.51144-1037-2052.5% under2,181Leaning
Underdogs of exactly 3
Pushes are common here. That's the key number at work.
120-101-2354.3% cover221Could be luck
Unders in December and later236-212-152.7% under448Could be luck
Favorites of exactly 790-77-1353.9% cover167Could be luck
Underdogs of 2.5 or less423-396-551.6% cover819Could be luck
Conference games: underdogs1864-1816-5250.7% cover3,680Could be luck
Unders in non-conference games1324-1284-1450.8% under2,608Could be luck
Big favorites (21+ points)738-709-1851.0% cover1,447Could be luck
Non-conference games: favorites1319-1287-3250.6% cover2,606Could be luck
Favorites laying 14 or more1222-1194-2450.6% cover2,416Could be luck
Unders, totals under 45360-346-651.0% under706Could be luck
Neutral-site underdogs204-194-551.3% cover398Could be luck
Home underdogs974-953-3250.5% cover1,927Could be luck
Bowl and playoff favorites141-136-450.9% cover277Could be luck
Teams facing an opponent off a bye485-476-950.5% cover961Could be luck
Home favorites1988-1973-4750.2% cover3,961Could be luck
Overs in conference games1857-1847-2850.1% over3,704Could be luck
Conference games: home teams1826-1826-5150.0% cover3,652Could be luck

6,378 graded games. Rest days come from each team's previous game that season; a bye means 13 or more days off.

Favorites by spread size, 2019 to 2026

Closing spreadFav ATSCover %GamesReal or luck?
0.5 to 2.5396-423-548.4%819Could be luck
3 to 3.5286-298-2349.0%584Could be luck
4 to 6.5450-475-748.6%925Could be luck
7 to 7.5221-203-1352.1%424Could be luck
8 to 9.5176-168-151.2%344Could be luck
10 to 13.5384-390-1149.6%774Could be luck
14 to 20.5484-485-649.9%969Could be luck
21 or more738-686-1851.8%1,424Could be luck

Where games land

Most common final margins, 6,458 CFB games since 2019. This is why a half point through 3 or 7 costs real money.

39.6%
77.6%
104.3%
144.1%
173.8%
213.6%
43.4%
63.1%

This season so far

Home teams ATS55.7%246-196-6Likely real448 games
Favorites ATS53.7%241-208-6Could be luck455 games
Overs52.5%239-216Could be luck455 games
Season by season
SeasonGradedHome ATSReal or luck?Favorites ATSReal or luck?OversReal or luck?
2026 (so far)45555.7%Likely real53.7%Could be luck52.5%Could be luck
202593351.4%Could be luck51.3%Could be luck49.2%Could be luck
202487751.3%Could be luck49.5%Could be luck52.2%Could be luck
202391147.6%Could be luck48.5%Could be luck51.8%Could be luck
202289449.0%Could be luck46.8%Could be luck51.0%Could be luck
202188251.1%Could be luck50.9%Could be luck47.5%Could be luck
202056748.8%Could be luck49.5%Could be luck50.4%Could be luck
201988449.3%Could be luck50.5%Could be luck45.1%Likely real
This season, team by team (small samples)

Best ATS

  1. Utah 5-0Small sample
  2. Georgia State 5-0Small sample
  3. Oregon State 6-0Small sample
  4. BYU 5-0Small sample
  5. New Mexico 5-0Small sample

Worst ATS

  1. Old Dominion 1-6Small sample
  2. UTEP 1-5Small sample
  3. Indiana 1-5Small sample
  4. Marshall 1-5Small sample
  5. San Diego State 1-5Small sample

Most overs

  1. West Virginia 6-0Small sample
  2. Colorado State 6-0Small sample
  3. Louisiana Tech 5-0Small sample
  4. Northwestern 5-0Small sample
  5. Stanford 5-1Small sample

Most unders

  1. Boston College 0-5Small sample
  2. UAB 1-6Small sample
  3. San José State 1-5Small sample
  4. North Dakota State 1-5Small sample
  5. Hawai'i 1-5Small sample

A 6-0 ATS start sounds great, but six games is nothing. Usually it means the market was slow on a team, not that it still is.

NFL

Situational spots, 2019 to 2026

SpotRecordHit rateGamesReal or luck?
Unders in night games (8 PM ET or later)237-174-357.7% under411Likely real
Divisional underdogs379-320-754.2% cover699Leaning
Unders, totals under 40138-105-156.8% under243Leaning
Road underdogs639-572-1652.8% cover1,211Leaning
Underdogs of 7 or more295-262-1153.0% cover557Could be luck
Underdogs of exactly 3
Pushes are common here. That's the key number at work.
102-84-1254.8% cover186Could be luck
Overs in December and later356-326-652.2% over682Could be luck
Teams facing an opponent off a bye95-80-354.3% cover175Could be luck
Playoff underdogs49-4055.1% cover89Could be luck
Non-divisional underdogs666-636-2151.2% cover1,302Could be luck
Home underdogs386-364-1151.5% cover750Could be luck
Unders, totals 40 to 44.5385-368-651.1% under753Could be luck
Big favorites (10+ points)116-109-651.6% cover225Could be luck
Unders, totals 45 to 49.5358-346-550.9% under704Could be luck
Unders, totals 50 and up163-155-351.3% under318Could be luck
Home teams on a short week (5 days or less)125-121-350.8% cover246Could be luck
Underdogs of 2.5 or less253-248-150.5% cover501Could be luck
Underdogs of exactly 744-42-551.2% cover86Could be luck
Overs in divisional games352-351-450.1% over703Could be luck

2,035 graded games. Rest days come from each team's previous game that season; a bye means 13 or more days off.

Favorites by spread size, 2019 to 2026

Closing spreadFav ATSCover %GamesReal or luck?
0.5 to 2.5248-253-149.5%501Could be luck
3 to 3.5219-239-1247.8%458Could be luck
4 to 6.5227-258-446.8%485Could be luck
7 to 7.586-113-543.2%199Could be luck
8 to 9.560-7345.1%133Could be luck
10 to 13.584-76-352.5%160Could be luck
14 to 20.531-33-348.4%64Could be luck
21 or more1-0100.0%1Small sample

Where games land

Most common final margins, 2,033 NFL games since 2019. This is why a half point through 3 or 7 costs real money.

314.7%
78.5%
66.8%
45.0%
104.9%
24.9%
144.7%
14.5%

This season so far

Home teams ATS50.7%37-36-3Could be luck76 games
Favorites ATS43.4%33-43-4Could be luck80 games
Overs51.2%41-39Could be luck80 games
Season by season
SeasonGradedHome ATSReal or luck?Favorites ATSReal or luck?OversReal or luck?
2026 (so far)8050.7%Could be luck43.4%Could be luck51.2%Could be luck
202528550.4%Could be luck48.6%Could be luck52.3%Could be luck
202428449.6%Could be luck52.1%Could be luck54.2%Could be luck
202328549.8%Could be luck51.3%Could be luck46.6%Could be luck
202228450.5%Could be luck44.6%Could be luck44.1%Could be luck
202128547.5%Could be luck47.3%Could be luck45.7%Could be luck
202026949.6%Could be luck44.4%Could be luck51.1%Could be luck
201926744.2%Could be luck47.1%Could be luck42.7%Likely real
This season, team by team (small samples)

Best ATS

  1. San Francisco 4-1Small sample
  2. Buffalo 4-1Small sample
  3. Las Vegas 4-1Small sample
  4. Minnesota 4-1Small sample
  5. New York 4-1Small sample

Worst ATS

  1. Los Angeles 0-4-1Small sample
  2. Los Angeles 1-4Small sample
  3. Tampa Bay 1-4Small sample
  4. Houston 1-4Small sample
  5. Seattle 1-3-2Small sample

Most overs

  1. Detroit 5-0Small sample
  2. Baltimore 4-1Small sample
  3. Buffalo 4-1Small sample
  4. Washington 4-1Small sample
  5. Dallas 4-1Small sample

Most unders

  1. Denver 1-5Small sample
  2. New York 1-4Small sample
  3. Chicago 1-4Small sample
  4. Jacksonville 1-4Small sample
  5. Minnesota 1-4Small sample

A 6-0 ATS start sounds great, but six games is nothing. Usually it means the market was slow on a team, not that it still is.

NHL

Home on the puck line40.7%48-70Could be luck118 games
Overs50.0%59-59Could be luck118 games
Season by season
SeasonGradedHome puck lineReal or luck?OversReal or luck?
2026-27 (so far)11840.7%Could be luck50.0%Could be luck
This season, team by team (small samples)

Best ATS

  1. Seattle 6-2Small sample
  2. Boston 5-2Small sample
  3. Edmonton 5-2Small sample
  4. New York 6-3Small sample
  5. Anaheim 4-2Small sample

Worst ATS

  1. Calgary 1-6Small sample
  2. Columbus 1-4Small sample
  3. Florida 2-6Small sample
  4. Montreal 2-5Small sample
  5. Toronto 3-5Small sample

Most overs

  1. Vegas 7-2Small sample
  2. Chicago 6-2Small sample
  3. Seattle 6-2Small sample
  4. Montreal 5-2Small sample
  5. St. Louis 5-2Small sample

Most unders

  1. Dallas 0-7Small sample
  2. Philadelphia 2-7Small sample
  3. Ottawa 2-6Small sample
  4. Anaheim 2-4Small sample
  5. Florida 3-5Small sample

A 6-0 ATS start sounds great, but six games is nothing. Usually it means the market was slow on a team, not that it still is.

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