NHL · 2026-27 betting profile

Tampa Bay Lightning

5-2 straight up · 3-4 ATS · 3-4 over-under

Against the spread

Split	ATS	Cover %	Real or luck?	Avg vs spread
All games	3-4	43%	Small sample	-1.2
Home	2-2	50%	Small sample	+0.2
Road	1-2	33%	Small sample	-3.2
Favorite	3-4	43%	Small sample	-1.2
Non-conference	3-4	43%	Small sample	-1.2
Last 5	2-3	40%	Small sample	-0.7

7 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.

Split	O-U	Over %	Real or luck?	Avg vs total
All games	3-4	43%	Small sample	-0.2
Home	1-3	25%	Small sample	-1
Road	2-1	67%	Small sample	+0.8
Non-conference	3-4	43%	Small sample	-0.2
Last 5	2-3	40%	Small sample	+0.1

Date	Opponent	Result	Close	ATS	Total	O-U
Oct 15	vs Seattle	W 4-3	-1.5	L -0.5	6.5	O +0.5
Oct 13	at New York	L 1-4	-1.5	L -4.5	5.5	U -0.5
Oct 10	at New York	W 5-3	-1.5	W +0.5	5.5	O +2.5
Oct 8	vs Minnesota	W 3-2	-1.5	L -0.5	6.5	U -1.5
Oct 5	vs Philadelphia	W 4-1	-1.5	W +1.5	5.5	U -0.5
Oct 3	vs Washington	W 3-1	-1.5	W +0.5	6.5	U -2.5
Oct 1	at New York	L 1-5	-1.5	L -5.5	5.5	O +0.5

Close is Tampa Bay's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.

Season	SU	ATS	Cover %	Real or luck?	O-U	Over %	Avg vs spread
2026-27	5-2	3-4	43%	Small sample	3-4	43%	-1.2

Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.