OfftheNumber
4-2, 2-3-1 ATS
20
at
30
FinalFS1FOX One

Closing number

Spread
TOL +10
MSU -10
Open –
Total
Over 48.5
Under 48.5

Source: DraftKings.

TOL 20, MSU 30. Push, over by 1.5.

Our crowd

Who's on what before kickoff, from the cappers we track and picks our users log.

Public cappers

Spread1 capper on Toledo
Toledo 10 Michigan St

Each capper counts once. See their picks

Want sportsbook bets % and money %? DraftKings posts theirs free: DK betting splits. We quote a few big games by hand when we can. User picks are anonymous: no names, and private picks stay private.

Common opponents

No common opponents yet this season.

Last season (2025): 1 common opponent
Opponent Toledo Michigan St
Western Michigan
L 13-14 away
-1 · -11.5 Didn't cover
W 23-6 home
+17 · -22.5 Didn't cover

Against 1 common opponent: Toledo lost by 1.0 on average, 0-1 against the spread. Michigan St won by 17.0 on average, 0-1 against the spread.

What the public cappers like

Spread
1 Toledo0 Michigan St
Toledo -9.51
Dave Portnoy *Line -9.5 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · No unit size given · Collected after the fact from the public post · Posted Sep 3 2:49 PM ET · Flat record 32-34-1, -4.9u (Incomplete record. We're still adding the rest of their picks.) · Original post
Total
No picks
Moneyline
No picks

* price not posted, -110 assumed. Tracked from public posts, not endorsed. All public picks

Betting form, 2026 to date

Toledo PWLWLL

ATSTotals
All games2-3-1 40%Small sample5-1 83% overSmall sample
Road0-1-1 0%Small sample2-0 100% overSmall sample
As underdog0-0-1
Last 52-3 40%Small sample

6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

Michigan State PWWLLW

ATSTotals
All games3-2-1 60%Small sample2-4 33% overSmall sample
Home2-1-1 67%Small sample2-2 50% overSmall sample
As favorite1-0-1 100%Small sample
Last 53-2 60%Small sample

6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games); over-under vs the closing total

Head to head since 2019

DateScoreCloseATSTotalO-U
Sep 4, 2026TOL 20, MSU 30MSU -10Push48.5Over

1 meeting is not a trend, and rosters turn over.

CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games); totals vs the closing total

Side by side

TOLMSU
4-2Record2-4
2-3-1Against the spread3-2-1
5-1Over-under2-4
-0.6Avg cover margin-1.3
36.7Points per game21.3
25.2Points allowed25.7
6.61Yards per play4.55
454.8Yards per game311.7
5.10Rush yards per carry3.30
63.1Completion %66.5
43.4Third down %42.5
+5Turnover margin+2
3Sacks allowed19
69.0Penalty yards per game39.8

Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.

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