The number
Updated Fri 3:30 PM ET Consensus of 9 US books: the line most books are dealing, with the middle price. Lines move. Check your book before you bet. Fair odds strip out the book's cut so you can see the price the market really implies.
Every book (9)
| Book | ARST | USM | Over | Under | ARST ML | USM ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -6.5-112 | +6.5-108 | o62.5-120 | u62.5+100 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5-115 | +6.5-105 | o62.5-115 | u62.5-105 | -250 | +202 |
| BetMGM | -6.5-108 | +6.5-110 | o62.5-110 | u62.5-108 | -235 | +195 |
| Caesars | -6.5-117 | +6.5-104 | o62.5-112 | u62.5-108 | -245 | +200 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5-110 | +6.5-110 | o62.5-110 | u62.5-110 | -230 | +195 |
| BetRivers | -6.5-117 | +6.5-107 | o63.5-112 | u63.5-112 | -265 | +205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5-115 | +6.5-105 | o63.5-110 | u63.5-110 | -260 | +210 |
| Bally Bet | -6.5-114 | +6.5-106 | o63.5-109 | u63.5-110 | -265 | +205 |
| betPARX | -6.5-114 | +6.5-106 | o63.5-109 | u63.5-110 | -265 | +205 |
Highlighted: the best number on each side. Legal US sportsbooks only.
Line movement
Injury report
From the Sun Belt availability report (Initial Report). Posted Wed 8:03 PM ET. First report three days out, then a game day update by 10:30 AM ET. We check every 30 minutes. See the official report
Arkansas State- Baker North OL
- Devin Spencer RB
- Nigel Nelson ILB
- Sultan Badmus DL
Kenyon Clay (RB), Tre Stevens (OLB)
Southern Miss- Avery Sledge
- Ethan Hampton
- Grant Page
- Jahmir Davis OL
- Jaylen Himes
- Jeffery Rush DL
- Jordan Pride DB
- Ricky Harding ILB
- Robert Briggs
No status changes since the first report we saw (Wed 8:03 PM ET). Changes and line moves will line up here.
Our crowd
Who's on what before kickoff, from the cappers we track and bets logged on our tracker.
Public cappers
None of the cappers we track have picked this one yet.
Tracker bettors
Shows up once 10 people log a bet on this game. Log yours
Want sportsbook bets % and money %? DraftKings posts theirs free: DK betting splits. We quote a few big games by hand when we can. Tracker counts are anonymous: no names, and private bets stay private.
Common opponents
No common opponents yet this season.
Last season (2025): 7 common opponents
| Opponent |  Arkansas St |  Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
 App St | W 30-29 away +1 · -1.5 Didn't cover | W 38-22 home +16 · +2.5 Covered |
 Georgia Southern | W 34-24 home +10 · -1.5 Covered | W 38-35 away +3 · -2.5 Covered |
 Louisiana | L 30-34 home -4 · -2.5 Didn't cover | W 22-10 away +12 · -4.5 Covered |
 South Alabama | W 15-14 away +1 · +8.5 Covered | L 35-42 away -7 · -2.5 Didn't cover |
 Texas St | W 31-30 home +1 · +14.5 Covered | L 14-41 home -27 · -3.5 Didn't cover |
 Troy | W 23-10 away +13 · +7.5 Covered | L 18-28 home -10 · -6.5 Didn't cover |
 UL Monroe | L 16-28 away -12 · +1.5 Didn't cover | W 49-21 home +28 · -13.5 Covered |
Against 7 common opponents: Arkansas St won by 1.4 on average, 4-3 against the spread. Southern Miss won by 2.1 on average, 4-3 against the spread.
Betting form, 2026
Arkansas State LWLLWL
| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-4 33%Small sample | 3-3 50% overSmall sample |
| Road | 1-2 33%Small sample | 1-2 33% overSmall sample |
| As favorite | 1-2 33%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 2-3 40%Small sample |
6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
Southern Miss WLLWL
| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-3 40%Small sample | 3-2 60% overSmall sample |
| Home | 1-1 50%Small sample | 2-0 100% overSmall sample |
| As underdog | 1-3 25%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 2-3 40%Small sample |
5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
Head to head since 2019
| Date | Score | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | USM 27, ARST 21 | USM -6.5 | ARST covered | 54.5 | Under |
| Oct 19, 2024 | ARST 44, USM 28 | ARST -7 | ARST covered | 56.5 | Over |
| Sep 23, 2023 | USM 37, ARST 44 | USM -6.5 | ARST covered | 46.5 | Over |
| Oct 15, 2022 | ARST 19, USM 20 | USM -4.5 | ARST covered | 52.5 | Under |
Arkansas State 4-0 ATS in these meetings. 4 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over. Closing lines from ESPN's archive.
Side by side
| ARST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| 2-4 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-3 | Over-under | 3-2 |
| -1.9 | Avg cover margin | +0.3 |
| 28.2 | Points per game | 26.4 |
| 28.8 | Points allowed | 34.6 |
| 6.19 | Yards per play | 5.77 |
| 376.3 | Yards per game | 415.6 |
| 4.40 | Rush yards per carry | 4.20 |
| 68.8 | Completion % | 61.5 |
| 50.8 | Third down % | 32.3 |
| +3 | Turnover margin | +0 |
| 9 | Sacks allowed | 11 |
| 44.5 | Penalty yards per game | 58.8 |
Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.