CFB · 2026 betting profile
Michigan Wolverines
3-2 straight up · 2-3 ATS · 1-4 over-under · #51 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameSat Oct 17, 3:30 PMCBSParamount+
vs
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany LionsSpreadMichigan -6.5
Total42.5
Moneyline-235
Upcoming lines
Sat Oct 17, 3:30 PM
Penn State3-3
Michigan3-2+6.5-6.5o42.5u42.5+191-235MICH -6moved 0.5 to MICHCBSParamount+Open MICH -6 · moved 0.5 to MICHCBSParamount+Sat Oct 24, 12 PM
5Indiana6-0Michigan3-2-8.5+8.5o44.5u44.5-360+285–FOXFOX OneFOXFOX One
Penn State3-3Michigan3-2+6.5-6.5o42.5u42.5+191-235MICH -6moved 0.5 to MICHCBSParamount+Open MICH -6 · moved 0.5 to MICHCBSParamount+Sat Oct 24, 12 PM5Indiana6-0Michigan3-2-8.5+8.5o44.5u44.5-360+285–FOXFOX OneFOXFOX OneOpen = the line when most books posted it for this week (Sunday night). A dash means we don't have that number.
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | -6.3 |
| Home | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | -4.8 |
| Road | 0-1 | 0% | Small sample | -12.5 |
| Favorite | 1-3 | 25% | Small sample | -11 |
| Underdog | 1-0 | 100% | Small sample | +12.5 |
| Conference | 0-2 | 0% | Small sample | -9 |
| Non-conference | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | -4.5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | -6.3 |
5 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 1-4 | 20% | Small sample | -5.9 |
| Home | 1-3 | 25% | Small sample | -5.5 |
| Road | 0-1 | 0% | Small sample | -7.5 |
| Conference | 0-2 | 0% | Small sample | -4 |
| Non-conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -7.2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 20% | Small sample | -5.9 |
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | at Minnesota | L 14-20 | -6.5 | L -12.5 | 41.5 | U -7.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs Iowa | L 19-20 | -4.5 | L -5.5 | 39.5 | U -0.5 |
| Sep 19 | vs UTEP | W 52-17 | -34.5 | W +0.5 | 48.5 | O +20.5 |
| Sep 12 | vs Oklahoma | W 17-10 | +5.5 | W +12.5 | 43.5 | U -16.5 |
| Sep 5 | vs Western Michigan | W 13-12 | -27.5 | L -26.5 | 50.5 | U -25.5 |
Close is Michigan's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | 1-4 | 20% | -6.3 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 4-9 | 31% | Small sample | 7-6 | 54% | -2.5 |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 6-5 | 55% | Small sample | 7-4 | 64% | +4.1 |
| 2023 | 15-0 | 9-6 | 60% | Small sample | 8-6-1 | 57% | -1.2 |
| 2022 | 13-1 | 9-5 | 64% | Small sample | 5-8-1 | 38% | +13.3 |
| 2021 | 12-2 | 11-3 | 79% | Small sample | 7-7 | 50% | +8.6 |
| 2020 | 2-4 | 1-5 | 17% | Small sample | 4-2 | 67% | -11.8 |
| 2019 | 9-4 | 7-6 | 54% | Small sample | 5-8 | 38% | +0.8 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.