Source: DraftKings.
LV 17, NE 45. NE covered by 24.5, over by 16.5.
Who's on what before kickoff, from the cappers we track and picks our users log.
Want sportsbook bets % and money %? DraftKings posts theirs free: DK betting splits. We quote a few big games by hand when we can. User picks are anonymous: no names, and private picks stay private.
No common opponents yet this season.
| Opponent |  Raiders |  Patriots |
|---|---|---|
 Browns | L 10-24 home -14 · -3.5 Didn't cover | W 32-13 home +19 · -6.5 Covered |
 Broncos | L 7-10 away -3 · +9.5 Covered | W 10-7 away +3 · -3.5 Didn't cover |
L 17-24 home -7 · +8.5 Covered | - | |
 Texans | L 21-23 away -2 · +14.5 Covered | W 28-16 home +12 · -3 Covered |
 Chargers | L 9-20 home -11 · +3.5 Didn't cover | W 16-3 home +13 · -3.5 Covered |
L 14-31 away -17 · +9.5 Didn't cover | - | |
 Giants | L 10-34 home -24 · +3 Didn't cover | W 33-15 home +18 · -7 Covered |
 Titans | W 20-10 home +10 · -4.5 Covered | W 31-13 away +18 · -6.5 Covered |
Against 6 common opponents: Raiders lost by 8.5 on average, 4-4 against the spread. Patriots won by 13.8 on average, 5-1 against the spread.
* price not posted, -110 assumed. Tracked from public posts, not endorsed. All public picks
Las Vegas WWWWL| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-1 80%Small sample | 3-2 60% overSmall sample |
| Road | 2-1 67%Small sample | 2-1 67% overSmall sample |
| As underdog | 3-1 75%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 4-1 80%Small sample |
5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
New England PWLWW| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-1-1 75%Small sample | 2-3 40% overSmall sample |
| Home | 2-0 100%Small sample | 1-1 50% overSmall sample |
| As favorite | 2-0 100%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 3-1-1 75%Small sample |
5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
NFL, 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 73% of games); over-under vs the closing total
| Date | Score | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | LV 17, NE 45 | NE -3.5 | NE covered | 45.5 | Over |
| Sep 7, 2025 | LV 20, NE 13 | NE -2.5 | LV covered | 44.5 | Under |
| Oct 15, 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV -3 | LV covered | 41.5 | Under |
| Dec 18, 2022 | NE 24, LV 30 | LV -2.5 | LV covered | 45 | Over |
| Sep 27, 2020 | LV 20, NE 36 | NE -7 | NE covered | 47.5 | Over |
Las Vegas 3-2 ATS in these meetings. 5 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over.
NFL, 2020-2025 + 2026 so far · regular season + postseason · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 73% of games); totals vs the closing total
 LV | NE  | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-1-1 |
| 3-2 | Over-under | 2-3 |
| +3.4 | Avg cover margin | +4.2 |
| 26.4 | Points per game | 22.0 |
| 25.8 | Points allowed | 18.8 |
| 5.31 | Yards per play | 5.99 |
| 345.4 | Yards per game | 382.0 |
| 3.00 | Rush yards per carry | 4.20 |
| 65.6 | Completion % | 65.6 |
| 39.4 | Third down % | 37.5 |
| +5 | Turnover margin | -3 |
| 8 | Sacks allowed | 11 |
| 44.2 | Penalty yards per game | 60.0 |
Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.
One email before the weekend: the lines that moved, the games worth a look, and where they're on.
Free. One email a week. Unsubscribe anytime.
