OfftheNumber
56
at
23
FinalABCESPN Unlimited

Closing number

Spread
ALA -5.5
MSST +5.5
Open –
Total
Over 62.5
Under 62.5

Source: DraftKings.

ALA 56, MSST 23. ALA covered by 27.5, over by 16.5.

Our crowd

Who's on what before kickoff, from the cappers we track and bets logged on our tracker.

Public cappers

Spread3 of 5 on Alabama
Alabama 32 Mississippi St
Total2 of 2 on Over
Over 20 Under
Moneyline3 of 5 on Alabama
Alabama 32 Mississippi St

Each capper counts once. See their picks

Want sportsbook bets % and money %? DraftKings posts theirs free: DK betting splits. We quote a few big games by hand when we can. Tracker counts are anonymous: no names, and private bets stay private.

Common opponents

Same opponents, side by side: how each team did, by how much, and whether they covered. Margin is points scored minus allowed; the line is that team's closing spread.

Opponent Alabama Mississippi St
South Carolina
W 49-18 home
+31 · -12.5 Covered
W 41-34 away
+7 · +3 Covered

Against 1 common opponent: Alabama won by 31.0 on average, 1-0 against the spread. Mississippi St won by 7.0 on average, 1-0 against the spread.

Last season (2025): 3 common opponents
Opponent Alabama Mississippi St
Georgia
W 24-21 away
+3 · +2.5 Covered
L 21-41 home
-20 · +9.5 Didn't cover
L 7-28 neutral
-21 · +1.5 Didn't cover
-
Missouri
W 27-24 away
+3 · -3.5 Didn't cover
L 27-49 away
-22 · +7.5 Didn't cover
Tennessee
W 37-20 home
+17 · -8.5 Covered
L 34-41 home
-7 · +7.5 Covered

Against 3 common opponents: Alabama won by 0.5 on average, 2-2 against the spread. Mississippi St lost by 16.3 on average, 1-2 against the spread.

What the public cappers like

Spread
3 Alabama2 Mississippi St
Alabama +63
Big Cat 1u*Line +6 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 1u (units not given, 1u used) · Collected after the fact from the public post · Posted Oct 1 1:20 PM ET · Record 94-66-4 (Incomplete record. We're still adding the rest of their picks.) · Original postRico Bosco 1u*Line +6 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 1u (units not given, 1u used) · Collected after the fact from the public post · Posted Oct 1 1:20 PM ET · Record 48-35 · Original postWill Compton 5u*Line +9.5 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 5u as posted · Collected after the fact from the public post · Posted Sep 30 6:45 PM ET · Record 8-11 (Incomplete record. We're still adding the rest of their picks.) · Original post
Mississippi St +5.52
Desmond Howard 1u*Line +5.5 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 1u (units not given, 1u used) · Collected after the fact from the public post · Posted Oct 3 11:59 AM ET · Record 1-5 · Original postDave Portnoy 1u*Line +6 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 1u (units not given, 1u used) · Collected after the fact from the public post · Posted Oct 1 1:20 PM ET · Record 32-34-1 (Incomplete record. We're still adding the rest of their picks.) · Original post
Total
2 Over0 Under
Over 60.52
Big Cat 1u*Line 60.5 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 1u (units not given, 1u used) · Collected after the fact from the public post · Posted Oct 2 11:31 PM ET · Record 94-66-4 (Incomplete record. We're still adding the rest of their picks.) · Original postRico Bosco 1u*Line 60.5 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 1u (units not given, 1u used) · Collected after the fact from the public post · Posted Oct 1 1:20 PM ET · Record 48-35 · Original post
Moneyline
No picks

Straight up: GameDay celebrity guest picker on Mississippi State, Kirk Herbstreit on Alabama, Desmond Howard on Mississippi State, Pat McAfee on Alabama, Nick Saban on Alabama

* price not posted, -110 assumed. Tracked from public posts, not endorsed. All public picks

Betting form, 2026 to date

Alabama WWLWWL

ATSTotals
All games4-2 67%Small sample5-1 83% overSmall sample
Road2-0 100%Small sample2-0 100% overSmall sample
As favorite4-2 67%Small sample
Last 53-2 60%Small sample

6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

Mississippi State WWWWL

ATSTotals
All games4-1 80%Small sample3-2 60% overSmall sample
Home2-1 67%Small sample2-1 67% overSmall sample
As underdog1-1 50%Small sample
Last 54-1 80%Small sample

5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

Head to head since 2019

DateScoreCloseATSTotalO-U
Oct 3, 2026ALA 56, MSST 23ALA -5.5ALA covered62.5Over
Sep 30, 2023ALA 40, MSST 17ALA -16.5ALA covered46Over
Oct 22, 2022MSST 6, ALA 30ALA -21.5ALA covered62Under
Oct 16, 2021ALA 49, MSST 9ALA -17.5ALA covered60Under
Oct 31, 2020MSST 0, ALA 41ALA -29ALA covered63.5Under
Nov 16, 2019ALA 38, MSST 7ALA -18ALA covered60Under

Alabama 6-0 ATS in these meetings. 6 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over. Closing lines from ESPN's archive.

Side by side

ALAMSST
5-1Record4-1
4-2Against the spread4-1
5-1Over-under3-2
+10.7Avg cover margin+6
44.2Points per game39.0
20.7Points allowed28.0
6.72Yards per play6.60
452.5Yards per game487.0
4.90Rush yards per carry4.80
67.7Completion %65.7
48.6Third down %48.4
+12Turnover margin+0
16Sacks allowed13
46.5Penalty yards per game69.8

Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.

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