OfftheNumber
4-2, 3-3 ATS
at
4-1, 1-4 ATS
Sat Oct 17 · 12 PMABCESPN UnlimitedDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

The number

Spread
FLA +11.5 -110
TEX -11.5 -110
Open TEX -9.5 moved 2
Fair, no vig: FLA -100 / TEX -100 (hold 4.8%)
Best: FLA +12 -113 at Bally Bet; TEX -11 -110 at BetMGM
Total
Over 51.5 -109
Under 51.5 -112
Fair, no vig: O +101 / U -101 (hold 5.0%)
Best: O 51.5 -105 at FanDuel; U 51.5 -110 at DraftKings
Moneyline
FLA +340
TEX -450
Fair, no vig: FLA +360 / TEX -360 (hold 4.5%)
Best: FLA +350 at Bally Bet; TEX -420 at FanDuel

Updated Fri 3 PM ET Consensus of 10 US books: the line most books are dealing, with the middle price. Lines move. Check your book before you bet. Fair odds strip out the book's cut so you can see the price the market really implies.

Every book (10)
BookFLATEXOverUnderFLA MLTEX ML
DraftKings+11.5-112-11.5-108o51.5-110u51.5-110+340-440
FanDuel+11.5-115-11.5-105o51.5-105u51.5-115+320-420
BetMGM+11-108-11-110o51.5-105u51.5-112+333-450
Caesars+11.5-113-11.5-107o51.5-108u51.5-112+330-420
theScore Bet+11.5-110-11.5-110o51.5-105u51.5-115+340-450
BetRivers+11.5-109-11.5-114o51.5-110u51.5-113+340-480
Fanatics+11.5-110-11.5-110o51.5-110u51.5-110+340-450
Hard Rock Bet+11.5-110-11.5-110o51.5-110u51.5-110+350-475
Bally Bet+12-113-12-108o51.5-109u51.5-112+350-480
betPARX+12-113-12-108o51.5-109u51.5-112+350-480

Highlighted: the best number on each side. Legal US sportsbooks only.

Injury report

From the SEC availability report (Thursday report). Posted Thu 8:10 PM ET. Schools file it the three nights before the game and 90 minutes before kickoff. We check every 30 minutes. See the official report

Florida
Out
  • Duke Clark RB
Questionable
  • Aaron Philo QB
  • Bailey Stockton WR
  • Vernell Brown III WR
Texas
Out
  • Jaydon Chatman OL
  • Kaliq Lockett WR
Probable

Jordan Coleman (OL), Justus Terry (DL)

No status changes since the first report we saw (Thu 8:10 PM ET). Changes and line moves will line up here.

Line movement

Key numbers crossed: 10 (TEX -9.5 to TEX -11.5). In football, moving through 3 or 7 changes a bet's value far more than other half points.

-6-8-10-12-14key 7key 10key 14OpenNow
TEX line, game-week open to now. Dashed lines are key numbers.
50515253OpenNow
Total, game-week open to now.

Our crowd

Who's on what before kickoff, from the cappers we track and bets logged on our tracker.

Public cappers

Spread1 capper on Texas
Florida 01 Texas

Each capper counts once. See their picks

Tracker bettors

Shows up once 10 people log a bet on this game. Log yours

Want sportsbook bets % and money %? DraftKings posts theirs free: DK betting splits. We don't copy them here. Tracker counts are anonymous: no names, and private bets stay private.

Betting form, 2026

Florida WLWWLL

ATSTotals
All games3-3 50%Small sample4-2 67% overSmall sample
Road1-1 50%Small sample2-0 100% overSmall sample
As underdognone
Last 52-3 40%Small sample

6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

Texas WLLLL

ATSTotals
All games1-4 20%Small sample2-3 40% overSmall sample
Home1-2 33%Small sample1-2 33% overSmall sample
As favorite1-4 20%Small sample
Last 51-4 20%Small sample

5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

Head to head since 2019

DateScoreCloseATSTotalO-U
Oct 4, 2025TEX 21, FLA 29TEX -4.5FLA covered42.5Over
Nov 9, 2024FLA 17, TEX 49TEX -24.5TEX covered48.5Over

Florida 1-1 ATS in these meetings. 2 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over. Closing lines from ESPN's archive.

Side by side

FLATEX
4-2Record4-1
3-3Against the spread1-4
4-2Over-under2-3
-4.1Avg cover margin+0.5
41.7Points per game31.4
29.0Points allowed16.0
6.66Yards per play5.25
473.8Yards per game379.2
5.00Rush yards per carry3.70
72.1Completion %63.9
45.2Third down %44.6
+4Turnover margin+1
8Sacks allowed12
77.8Penalty yards per game62.2

Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.

What the public cappers like

Spread
0 Florida1 Texas
Texas -10.51
Big Cat 1u*Line -10.5 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 1u (units not given, 1u used) · Posted Oct 15 4:01 PM ET · Record 94-66-4 · Original post
Total
No picks
Moneyline
No picks

* price not posted, -110 assumed. Tracked from public posts, not endorsed. All public picks

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