CFB · 2026 betting profile
Penn State Nittany Lions
3-3 straight up · 2-4 ATS · 3-3 over-under · #37 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameSat Oct 17, 3:30 PMCBSParamount+
at
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan WolverinesSpreadPenn State +6.5
Total42.5
Moneyline+191
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-4 | 33% | Small sample | -4.4 |
| Home | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | +1 |
| Road | 0-2 | 0% | Small sample | -15.2 |
| Favorite | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | -4 |
| Underdog | 0-1 | 0% | Small sample | -6.5 |
| Conference | 0-3 | 0% | Small sample | -14.7 |
| Non-conference | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +5.8 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 20% | Small sample | -9.6 |
6 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-3 | 50% | Small sample | -0.3 |
| Home | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | +2.8 |
| Road | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | -6.5 |
| Conference | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +0.2 |
| Non-conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -0.8 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 60% | Small sample | +1.3 |
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | vs USC | L 23-31 | +1.5 | L -6.5 | 54.5 | U -0.5 |
| Oct 2 | at Northwestern | L 13-34 | -3 | L -24 | 46.5 | O +0.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs Wisconsin | L 20-24 | -9.5 | L -13.5 | 43.5 | O +0.5 |
| Sep 19 | vs Buffalo | W 55-13 | -39.5 | W +2.5 | 48.5 | O +19.5 |
| Sep 12 | at Temple | W 27-9 | -24.5 | L -6.5 | 49.5 | U -13.5 |
| Sep 5 | vs Marshall | W 45-0 | -23.5 | W +21.5 | 53.5 | U -8.5 |
Close is Penn State's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-3 | 2-4 | 33% | Small sample | 3-3 | 50% | -4.4 |
| 2025 | 7-6 | 5-8 | 38% | Small sample | 9-4 | 69% | -2.9 |
| 2024 | 13-3 | 7-8 | 47% | Small sample | 7-8 | 47% | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 9-4 | 69% | Small sample | 7-6 | 54% | +4.4 |
| 2022 | 11-2 | 9-3-1 | 75% | Small sample | 9-4 | 69% | +17.5 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 7-6 | 54% | Small sample | 3-10 | 23% | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 44% | Small sample | 4-4-1 | 50% | -5.7 |
| 2019 | 11-2 | 6-5-1 | 55% | Small sample | 4-8 | 33% | +3.3 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.