OfftheNumber
TCU Horned Frogs
2-3, 2-3 ATS
at
Baylor Bears
4-1, 4-1 ATS
Sat Oct 17 · 7 PMFS1FOX OneMcLane Stadium

The number

Spread
TCU +5.5 -110
BAY -5.5 -110
Open BAY -6.5 moved 1
Fair, no vig: TCU -100 / BAY -100 (hold 4.8%)
Best: TCU +6.5 -110 at theScore Bet; BAY -5.5 -108 at BetMGM
Total
Over 48.5 -108
Under 48.5 -113
Fair, no vig: O +102 / U -102 (hold 5.0%)
Best: O 48.5 -105 at FanDuel; U 48.5 -110 at theScore Bet
Moneyline
TCU +190
BAY -225
Fair, no vig: TCU +201 / BAY -201 (hold 3.7%)
Best: TCU +195 at betPARX; BAY -205 at FanDuel

Updated Fri 4:10 PM ET Consensus of 9 US books: the line most books are dealing, with the middle price. Lines move. Check your book before you bet. Fair odds strip out the book's cut so you can see the price the market really implies.

Every book (9)
BookTCUBAYOverUnderTCU MLBAY ML
DraftKings+5.5-110-5.5-110o48.5-108u48.5-112+180-218
FanDuel+5.5-110-5.5-110o48.5-105u48.5-115+168-205
BetMGM+5.5-110-5.5-108o48.5-108u48.5-110+180-220
Caesars+5.5-104-5.5-117o48.5-107u48.5-114+182-218
theScore Bet+6.5-110-6.5-110o48.5-110u48.5-110+190-225
BetRivers+6-109-6-113o48.5-109u48.5-114+195-265
Hard Rock Bet+5.5+100-5.5-120o48.5-110u48.5-110+195-250
Bally Bet+6-108-6-112o48.5-108u48.5-113+195-250
betPARX+6-108-6-112o48.5-108u48.5-113+195-250

Highlighted: the best number on each side. Legal US sportsbooks only.

Line movement

Key numbers crossed: none (BAY -6.5 to BAY -5.5).

-2-3-4-5-6-7-8key 3key 7OpenNow
BAY line, game-week open to now. Dashed lines are key numbers.
47484950OpenNow
Total, game-week open to now.

Injury report

From the Big 12 availability report (Thursday report). Posted Thu 10 PM ET. Posted at 10 PM ET the three nights before the game and 90 minutes before kickoff. We check every 30 minutes. See the official report

TCU
Out
  • Cooper Reid WR
  • Devan Robison OL
  • Devondre McGee CB
  • Fletcher Fierro WR
  • Floyd Guidry DT
  • Keagan Cunningham WR
Questionable
  • Kyle Lemmermann K
  • Michael Teason Jr. LB
  • Noriel Dominguez LB
Probable

Jeremy Scott (WR), Kari Ashley (TE)

Baylor
Out
  • Ashton Jones WR
  • Cayden Tone OL
  • Devonte Tezino DL
  • Jacob Redding S
  • Jamarion Richardson CB
Probable

Garrick Ponder (JCK)

What changed and what the line did

  1. Line moved 0.5 pts toward TCU (BAY -6 to BAY -5.5).

Lines from our snapshots of 10 legal US books. A move right after news doesn't prove the news caused it, but it's usually why.

Our crowd

Who's on what before kickoff, from the cappers we track and picks our users log.

Public cappers

Total1 capper on Under
Over 01 Under

Each capper counts once. See their picks

Off The Number users

Not enough picks yet. A split shows once 10 users pick this game. Add yours

Want sportsbook bets % and money %? DraftKings posts theirs free: DK betting splits. We quote a few big games by hand when we can. User picks are anonymous: no names, and private picks stay private.

Common opponents

No common opponents yet this season.

Last season (2025): 5 common opponents
Opponent TCU Baylor
Arizona St
L 24-27 away
-3 · +2.5 Didn't cover
L 24-27 home
-3 · -1.5 Didn't cover
Cincinnati
W 45-23 home
+22 · -3 Covered
L 20-41 away
-21 · +3.5 Didn't cover
Houston
W 17-14 away
+3 · -1.5 Covered
L 24-31 home
-7 · -2.5 Didn't cover
K-State
L 28-41 away
-13 · -2.5 Didn't cover
W 35-34 home
+1 · -4.5 Didn't cover
SMU
W 35-24 home
+11 · -6.5 Covered
W 48-45 away
+3 · +2.5 Covered

Against 5 common opponents: TCU won by 4.0 on average, 3-2 against the spread. Baylor lost by 5.4 on average, 1-4 against the spread.

What the public cappers like

Spread
No picks
Total
0 Over1 Under
Under 48.51
Big Cat *Line 48.5 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · No unit size given · Posted Oct 15 4:01 PM ET · Flat record 94-66-4, +19.5u (Incomplete record. We're still adding the rest of their picks.) · Original post
Moneyline
No picks

* price not posted, -110 assumed. Tracked from public posts, not endorsed. All public picks

Betting form, 2026

TCU LWWLL

ATSTotals
All games2-3 40%Small sample1-4 20% overSmall sample
Road0-1 0%Small sample0-1 0% overSmall sample
As underdog0-1 0%Small sample
Last 52-3 40%Small sample

5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

Baylor WWLWW

ATSTotals
All games4-1 80%Small sample2-3 40% overSmall sample
Home2-1 67%Small sample1-2 33% overSmall sample
As favorite2-1 67%Small sample
Last 54-1 80%Small sample

5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games); over-under vs the closing total

Head to head since 2019

DateScoreCloseATSTotalO-U
Oct 18, 2025BAY 36, TCU 42TCU -3.5TCU covered67.5Over
Nov 2, 2024TCU 34, BAY 37BAY -2.5BAY covered62.5Over
Nov 18, 2023BAY 17, TCU 42TCU -13.5TCU covered61Under
Nov 19, 2022TCU 29, BAY 28TCU -2BAY covered57.5Under
Nov 6, 2021BAY 28, TCU 30BAY -7.5TCU covered57Over
Oct 31, 2020TCU 33, BAY 23TCU -2.5TCU covered47.5Over
Nov 9, 2019BAY 29, TCU 23BAY -2.5BAY covered48Over

TCU 4-3 ATS in these meetings. 7 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over.

CFB (FBS), 2019-2025 · regular season + postseason · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games); totals vs the closing total

Side by side

TCUBAY
2-3Record4-1
2-3Against the spread4-1
1-4Over-under2-3
-1.7Avg cover margin+9.3
25.4Points per game34.8
13.4Points allowed14.2
5.91Yards per play5.60
405.4Yards per game461.4
3.60Rush yards per carry4.20
68.4Completion %59.1
40.9Third down %43.2
+4Turnover margin+5
13Sacks allowed8
60.2Penalty yards per game67.2

Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.

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